【深度】中国电力行业1990—2050年温室气体排放研究

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Greenhouse GasEmissions from Power Sector in China from 1990 to 2050

Su Shenshen1,2, Zhao Jinyang1, Hu Jianxin2

1Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China;

2Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, College ofEnvironmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871,China

Abstract: 2006 IPCC Guidelinesfor National Greenhouse Gas Inventories was adopted to estimate provincialgreenhouse gas emissions from power sector in China in 1990−2014. The nationalemissions in 2014 increased by more than 6 times since 1990, reaching 3.80(3.13−4.60, 95% confidence interval[u29] )billion t CO2-eq. The changing patterns of provincial emissions wasalso examined in this study. Great disparity existed in the provincialemissions and the Inner Mongolia became the biggest emitter since 2011,promoting the emission center transferred from the East to West China. Basedon development plans of power structure in the future, the greenhouse gas emissions frompower sector in 2015—2050 were projected under different power demand scenarios.Under a high power demandscenario, projected emissions will peak in 2034 with 5.95 (4.93−7.18) billion t CO2-eq.While under a low power demand scenario, the projected emissions will peak in[xx30] [u31] 2031 with 0.77 (0.63−0.93) billion t CO2-eqlower than those of high demand scenario.

Key words: power industry;greenhouse gase; spatial distribution; scenario analysis; peak emissions