风光燃储集成虚拟电厂的随机调度优化模型

5 结论

本文集成风电、光伏发电、燃气轮机、储能系统和激励型需求响应为虚拟电厂,并应用CVaR理论和置信度方法描述风电、光伏发电和负荷需求的不确定性。以考虑风险损失后的最大运营净收益作为目标函数,建立虚拟电厂随机调度优化模型,算例分析表明：

1)IBDR具有较好的削峰效应,ESSs和PBDR具有较高的填谷效应。峰时段,PBDR会减少用电需求量,降低VPP发电出力,IBDR和ESSs分别提供下旋转备用和发电出力,VPP发电收益增加。谷时段,PBDR产生增量负荷,IBDR提供上旋转备用,ESSs充电蓄能,VPP运行收益略有增加。

2)CVaR理论和置信度方法能够有效描述目标函数和约束条件中不确定性因素,决策者可根据自身风险态度,设置门槛值和置信度水平,实现以最低风险追求最高VPP运行收益的目标。当β≤0.85,CVaR值下降斜率较小,决策者风险敏感程度较弱,愿意以一定风险博取超额收益;当0.85≤β≤0.95时,CVaR值下降斜率较大,决策者风险敏感程度相对较高;当β≥0.95时,CVaR值下降斜率较小,表明调度方案基本达到最保守方案。

（徐辉 焦扬 蒲雷 何楠 王尧 谭忠富）

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