深度文章｜电力用户停电影响指标体系及综合评估方法

4 结论

本文提出了一种电力用户停电影响综合评估方法,首先从用户停电所带来的用户经济损失影响、供电企业经济损失及其供电可靠性考核指标影响等方面出发,同时结合考虑用户对供电企业的重要程度,建立了用户停电影响指标体系,利用层次分析法进行各个指标的权重确定,并加权计算得到评估结果。通过实例验证了所提指标体系和方法的合理性、可行性,结论如下：

1）停电影响指标体系既考虑了停电带来的经济损失影响、供电可靠性考核指标影响,又结合了用户对供电企业的重要程度进行考虑,避免了单一方面评估的局限性,通过本文提出的综合评估方法,能够从不同评估主体的实际需求出发,对用户停电造成的影响做不同侧重角度的评估。

2）在建立停电影响指标体系时,考虑了停电的不同时间段对用户和供电企业造成损失的差异,并将产业关联度分析理论引入用户间接损失的计算;同时利用熵值法对复杂指标进行客观赋权和加权计算,避免了人为设置权重因素带来的偏差。

3）利用某市用户的停电数据,验证了所提出指标体系的可行性和评估方法的有效性。能为用户的损失估算和供电企业目前的生产运行状况评估以及未来的预停电管理提供参考和决策辅助。

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