新冠疫情对电力行业影响综述

四、外部性评估

作为排放大户，疫情期间发电结构的改变也对环境带来了外部影响。化石燃料发电每年产生大量的温室气体。根据美国环境保护署的数据，2018年电力部门排放的温室气体百分比为27％[30]。此外，燃煤发电还会排放一些空气污染物，例如氮氧化物，PM2.5和PM10。而随着人类生产活动强度的下降，全球二氧化碳排放量已大幅减少。一项研究表明，到2020年一季度，全球电力部门的CO2排放量减少131.6 Mt [31]。IEA估计，各国的减排量与新冠疫情的严重程度和持续时间呈正相关，其中美国（-9％），中国（-8％）和欧盟（-8％）影响显著。相较于2019年，预计2020年全年减排量为2.6 Gt（-8％），是2009年以前的0.4Gt纪录的六倍以上[2]。

此外，据报道，全球主要的空气污染物，例如NOx和PM2.5的排放量也在减少。在中国，2月的平均PM2.5浓度与2019年2月，2018年和2017年2月的月平均水平相比下降了20％-30％[32]。在英国，3月份的NO2和PM2.5平均浓度比以前降低了25％，在伦敦，卡迪夫和伯明翰等城市，降幅超过50％[33]。

但是，新冠疫情期间的碳排放减少更多是短期现象。需要指出的是，2008年金融危机结束后不久的2010年，全球CO2排放量反弹1.7Gt。在新冠疫情期间，社会和政府的关注点主要在公众健康和经济恢复上，为此采取了诸多未充分考虑气候和环境影响的紧急行动和救济措施。而在疫情后的经济恢复阶段，事先制定的环境和气候政策也将让步于经济刺激方案[29]。可见，通过减少人类活动来减轻气候变化是不可持续且不切实际的，更有效的方法是实现能源的清洁化转型[23]。

五、小结

新冠疫情在许多方面极大地影响了人类生产生活。本文通过广泛调研和梳理疫情爆发以来的各类公开资料，全面地回顾了新冠疫情对电力部门的影响。

首先，分析了新冠疫情和防控措施对电力需求、供给的影响。在电力需求方面，大多数实行封锁政策的国家总用电量减少了，而居民负荷却有所增加，并由此导致了负荷曲线形态的变化。电力供给方面，总发电量随需求下降而下降，其中燃煤发电量的减少最大，可再生能源的份额有所增加，但弃风弃光仍在不少地区发生。

其次，本文讨论了新冠疫情对电力系统运行、调控和运维带来的影响，包括电力平衡，电压控制，检修计划和人员管理，同时梳理了不同国家的应对措施。再次，回顾了疫情期间电力市场的表现，多个电力市场的电价大幅下降，同时负电价更加频繁地出现。许多燃煤发电厂和公用事业公司都遇到了财务问题，大多数投资项目被暂停，但电力领域的长期投资以及未来能源转型的发展不会受到太大影响。

最后，讨论了疫情期间电力系统的减排和环境影响，同时指出燃煤发电减少带来的减排只是短期的，需要注意经济恢复过程中的排放反弹。需要说明本文主要聚焦新冠疫情对电力系统不同方面的短期影响，而疫情和后续经济恢复措施对电力系统供需结构、运行调控、市场投资以及能源转型的长期影响值得关注和进一步研究。

引文格式：

H. Zhong, Z. Tan, Y. He, L. Xie and C. Kang, "Implications of COVID-19 for the electricity industry: A comprehensive review," CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 489-495, Sept. 2020.

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